Forecasts for how many people might die could swing wildly depending on relatively small variations in these assumptions.Although these difficulties afflict all modelling, there has been particular criticism in recent days of Professor Ferguson’s track record. He worked on initial estimates for the possible death toll of variant CJD, aka the form of mad cow disease, in 1996, estimating with others a range from 50 deaths to 50,000. But these were far from the most lurid estimates for a disease that has actually killed just 176 people.
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